As India prepares to fulfil its promise of accelerating economic growth, the current five-year plan significantly increases investments in infrastructure and incentivizes manufacturing. Additionally, efforts are being made to better connect education and employment, with a renewed emphasis on skill development. These initiatives have led Bloomberg Economics to project that the Indian economy could grow by 9% by the end of the decade, while China’s growth is expected to slow to 3.5%. Such optimistic forecasts position India to surpass China as the world’s leading growth engine by 2028.
However, a more cautious outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that even if India’s growth remains below 6.5% over the next five years, the country is still on track to overtake China’s contribution by 2037. These projections from both Bloomberg Economics and the IMF have sparked widespread debate among India’s top economists. While experts like Arvind Subramanian (former Chief Economic Advisor) and Raghuram Rajan (former RBI Governor) agree that India’s demographic advantage, expanding consumer base, and structural reforms are promising, they also stress the need for ongoing investments in infrastructure, education, and technology to sustain this momentum.
Some of the challenges facing India’s growth story include jobless growth, inequality, and external factors like rising protectionism, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. However, recent economic policies aimed at boosting growth, enhancing the ease of doing business, and increasing investments in human capital suggest that India is on the path toward a more prosperous future. Below is our wishlist for transformative changes that will shape India, fostering innovation, economic growth, and a better quality of life for all citizens as we celebrate the centennial year of the Indian Republic in 2050.
1. Thriving Urban Centers
By 2050, we expect many more Indians to be living and working in urban cities with populations exceeding one million. Currently, India has 45 such cities, compared to China’s 385. A greater focus on urbanization will provide more opportunities for work and development, driving economic growth.
2. Equal Value for Education and Vocational Skills
The gap between traditional college degrees and vocational training will diminish, with both pathways being equally valued. Mandatory 12-year schooling will ensure that all students develop core competencies such as literacy, numeracy, and critical thinking, supporting an inclusive education system that prepares them for skill-based jobs.
3. Revolutionized Higher Education
By 2050, the focus on traditional college degrees will decline, with greater emphasis on real-world, practical skills. The growth of apprenticeships will reshape education, providing young people with hands-on experience and employable skills.
4. Flexible Employment Models and Portable Benefits
Employment structures will evolve from lifetime contracts to more flexible models, with portable benefits linked to universal IDs such as Aadhaar. Workers will be able to switch jobs freely, carrying their benefits with them, thus supporting a dynamic workforce.
5. Streamlined Business Regulations
By 2050, businesses will enjoy simplified regulatory processes, with each company assigned a single operational number, reducing administrative burdens and encouraging entrepreneurship.
6. Formalization of Indian Enterprises
By 2050, most of India’s enterprises will be formalized. Currently, only a small portion of the country’s 60 million businesses are registered for tax and employee benefits. Formalization will unlock growth, increase compliance, and provide workers with better access to benefits.
7. Shift from Agriculture to Industry
By 2050, less than 10% of India’s workforce will be employed in agriculture, compared to 50% today. This shift will boost agricultural productivity and create more opportunities in manufacturing and services, driving economic growth.
8. Growth in Manufacturing and Services
By 2050, the manufacturing sector will employ 20% of India’s workforce, up from 11% today. The services sector, along with the rise of medium-sized businesses and domestic consumption, will create millions of new jobs, supporting the overall economy.
9. End of Working Poverty
One of the most significant changes expected by 2050 is the eradication of working poverty. Currently, 40% of India’s workforce earns enough to survive but not enough to escape poverty. By 2050, every worker should earn a living wage that allows for a dignified life and greater prosperity.
10. Job Creation as a Growth Engine
Jobs will remain a cornerstone of India’s economic transformation. Stable employment is a powerful tool for reducing poverty, and by 2050, job creation—particularly in the service sector and small businesses—will be key to economic growth.
In conclusion, there is widespread agreement among economists that India has the potential to become the world’s largest driver of economic growth by the end of the decade. However, achieving this potential will require continued reforms, strong governance, and a focus on inclusive and sustainable development. While the timeline for surpassing China may vary depending on how effectively India manages its challenges, the country is on track to deliver widespread prosperity for all its citizens. The centenary celebrations of the Indian Republic will see the rise of a new India, one that delivers the dream of mass prosperity.
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