As Covid-19 Spikes, ICMR To Model Best, Worst Case Scenarios

Will release the predictions on Tuesday

In the light of the spike in Covid-19 cases, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) will release mathematical estimations of the best and the worst case scenarios on the number of new cases that could play out over the next few months.

According to academic modellings, the number of coronavirus cases in India could run into lakhs, with a few thousand deaths.

“We are looking at mathematical modelling estimates to predict the numbers and will release the scenarios on Tuesday. We have to calculate the need for diagnostic test kits now,” R Gangakhedkar, head, epidemiology and communicable diseases, ICMR, said.

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Balram Bhargava, ICMR Head and Secretary to the Department of Health Research, said that 80 per cent of those with Covid-19 symptoms like dry cough will recover under home-based set-ups and their symptoms will not worsen. He added, “About 20 per cent will have exacerbated symptoms and discomfort, of which only 5 per cent will require hospitalisation,” Bhargava said.

Source: The Hindu BusinessLine

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